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if a friend has gotten absolutely rat-assed on wine every time I've been over to his house for dinner, what is the posterior probability that he will again do so tonight?
(keep in mind that it's the beginning of a new year and sometimes people make resolutions about such things...)
(keep in mind that it's the beginning of a new year and sometimes people make resolutions about such things...)
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Re: priors
Fri, January 6, 2006 - 5:10 PMWell, if you assume the prior uninformative, the likelihood will influence the posterior so that there will be a high PP that your mate will get rat-arsed on wine again. Of course, you could adopt a non-informative prior by, say, taking a bottle of vodka with you. Then your friend will probably get rat-arsed on vodka instead of wine :-)
Happy new year! -
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Re: priors
Fri, January 6, 2006 - 5:13 PMI'm going with maximum likelihood at this point...
Happy new year back!
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